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CALCULATION

We calculate the necessary capital from the maximum drawdown supported by the system in the past, ensued from the walk-forward test and analysis of Montecarlo. Initially we analyze the results of the test Walk-Forward and take the worst of the cases in which a system has increased his drawdown, optimizing one year, and applying the results in the following one, and take it as multiplier:
 
   

1998 ..draw . 3200€ -> over 1999 draw 4500€
1999 ..draw . 2500€ -> over 2000 draw 5500€
2000 ..draw ... 4100€ -> over 2001 draw 3500€
2001 ..draw ... 2350€ -> over 2002 draw 3000 €

 
 

We take as the worst of the cases the year 1999 applied on 2000, which Draw has increased more than 2 times with regard to the previous one and would select the multiplier 2. Next we establish an equation that relates this multiplier to the maximum drawdown, the result of the analysis of Montecarlo and the reliability of the system. And hereby we estimate the necessary capital for each system or system combination is around betwwen 2 and 2.5 times the maximum historical drawdown.

So we establish the minimums that are:

Systems with historical DrawDowns lower than 2000 €... Capital 6.000 €, Systems with historical losses up to 3.500 € . Minimum Capital 10.000 €

Systems over Dax minimal 18.000 €

These minimums are based on our own experience and the analyses realized on systems with so low drawdown, It have taken us to the conclusion that systems at such a low level of losses show us a coupling of the system , and usually it increase in a very high percentage. We have to bear in mind that an optimized system generates the best operations and is adapted up to a point to the past, but the future is going to be different and we handle probabilities in his behavior. Any optimized system always worsens his behavior in real time though we put a lot of care in choosing the suitable parameters.

The multipliers of 2.5 and 1.5 are rough estimates, it would not be necessary to manage to use up this capital, but sometimes it is possible that it exceeds if the conditions of the market change drastically , due to this, we should have several systems in order that the losses of some are compensated by the profit of the others.



 

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